cakanie na godotov difficulty adjustment :: Remember, remember, the velvet November


node:	cakanie na godotov difficulty adjustment
template:	4
parent:	Bitcoin (The Church of Satoshi and Latter Day Coins)
owner:	Prospero
viewed by:
created:	06.02.2026 - 10:02:59

cwbe coordinatez:
101
63540
63590
5734320
9292973

ABSOLUT
KYBERIA

permissions
you:	r,
system:	public
net:	yes

neurons
stats|by_visit|by_K source tiamat K|my_K|given_K last commanders polls
total descendants::21
total children::7
1 ❤️

show[ 2 | 3] flat

Bitcoin Is Crashing So Hard That Miners Are Unplugging Their Equipment

https://futurism.com/future-society/bitcoin-crashing-miners-unplugging-equipment

Bitcoin is crashing hard, reaching historic lows of well below the $70,000 mark. At the time of writing, the token is hovering just above $63,000, levels we haven’t seen since October 2024.

The ongoing plunge has made it far less economical to mine the digital token, a notoriously compute- and energy-intensive process — to the point that large-scale computing companies are starting to unplug their equipment, as Bloomberg reports.

As prices continue to plummet and electricity costs climb, it’s become tough out there for a crypto miner. The hash price index, which is used to determine how much revenue miners can make by mining crypto, reached its lowest point on record this week ...

cim nizsia cena, tym menej minerov, cim menej minerov, tym vyssi confirmation time, cim vyssi confirmation time, tym vzdialenejsia difficulty adjustment, cim vzdialenejsia difficulty adjustment, tym vacsia panika, cim vacsia panika, tym nizsia cena ....

000001010006354000063590057343200929297309293532

pre referenciu dlzky minovania blokov, dnes bol diff adjustment:

00000101000635400006359005734320092929730929353209294007

Scanning 30 difficulty epochs...
Epoch 437: blocks 880992–883007 (2025-01-27 → 2025-02-09)
mean = 570.24s (LESS)
p = 2.375e-02 (log10 p ≈ -1.62)
elapsed wall time: 13 days 06:10:14 (318.17 hours)

Epoch 441: blocks 889056–891071 (2025-03-23 → 2025-04-05)
mean = 565.05s (LESS)
p = 7.796e-03 (log10 p ≈ -2.11)
elapsed wall time: 13 days 02:34:44 (314.58 hours)

Epoch 447: blocks 901152–903167 (2025-06-14 → 2025-06-29)
mean = 650.90s (GREATER)
p = 2.157e-04 (log10 p ≈ -3.67)
elapsed wall time: 15 days 03:36:32 (363.61 hours)

Epoch 448: blocks 903168–905183 (2025-06-29 → 2025-07-12)
mean = 557.22s (LESS)
p = 1.050e-03 (log10 p ≈ -2.98)
elapsed wall time: 12 days 23:19:18 (311.32 hours)

Epoch 456: blocks 919296–921311 (2025-10-16 → 2025-10-29)
mean = 573.12s (LESS)
p = 4.248e-02 (log10 p ≈ -1.37)
elapsed wall time: 13 days 04:09:07 (316.15 hours)

Epoch 462: blocks 931392–933407 (2026-01-08 → 2026-01-22)
mean = 634.37s (GREATER)
p = 1.235e-02 (log10 p ≈ -1.91)
elapsed wall time: 14 days 11:25:39 (347.43 hours)

Epoch 463: blocks 933408–935423 (2026-01-22 → 2026-02-07)
mean = 693.18s (GREATER)
p = 5.085e-11 (log10 p ≈ -10.29)
elapsed wall time: 15 days 18:25:23 (378.42 hours)

Epoch 464: blocks 935424–935823 (2026-02-07 → 2026-02-09)
mean = 532.86s (LESS)
p = 2.122e-02 (log10 p ≈ -1.67)

000001010006354000063590057343200929297309293210

Bitcoin has been declared dead 463 times.

https://bitcoindeaths.com/

000001010006354000063590057343200929297309293166

https://kryptomagazin.sk/od-boomu-k-padu-bitcoin-ma-spustit-spiralu-smrti-pre-tieto-aktiva/

000001010006354000063590057343200929297309293113

000001010006354000063590057343200929297309293102

first time here?:)

000001010006354000063590057343200929297309293040

nastastie mame plne rit derivatov a kapital je cely napchaty v derivatoch. a teda vacsina nepotrebuje okamzite onchain transakcie na to, aby vykesoval toto krviprelievanie. to by malo spomalit aj tento doomscenar

00000101000635400006359005734320092929730929304009293043

Otazka tu je ci mineri mozu vykesovat tolko aby zaplatili za elektrinu. To sa neda nijako odlozit. Ked z jednej strany tlaci hore dopyt AI a zima, z druhej strany tlaci dole ponuku dunkelflaute (nedostatok renewables).

0000010100063540000635900573432009292973092930400929304309293101

Cena elektriny je len cast nakladov, a v kope scenarov by som povedal ze fixne dana, proste sa ti nemeni z hodiny na hodinu. Mining nie je a nikdy nebol prilis profitabilny bussines, odmena na volnom trhu konverguje k minimalnej moznej.

000001010006354000063590057343200929297309293040092930430929310109293426

Aka kopa scenarov kde? Pokial si mozes dovolit obcas vypnut odber, vzdy je vyhodnejsia spotova cena elektriny. Fixnu cenu na roky dopredu si kontrahuju napr. zeleznice ktore vypinat nemozu. Nie mineri. Ale mozno mas ine informacie z prvej ruky? Domaci mining za regulovane ceny neratam, to je len zlomok siete.

00000101000635400006359005734320092929730929304009293043092931010929342609293450

Cenu mas fixnu, napriklad ked si elektrinu vyrabas sam, napriklad preto ze je elektraren off-grid, a "investiciu" si teda uz spravil v minulosti. Nebude to asi extra caste, ale poznam take pripady.

Druhym (mojim odhadom) pomerne castym pripadom bude ked minujes niekde, kde za elektrinu neplatis, lebo o tom ani poskytovatel nevie. Rozne institucie alebo firmy kde sa nejaky ten zapnuty stroj strati, pripadne na ovela vaccsej urovni rozne hlavne rozvojove krajiny.

Domaci mining by som uplne nevyhadzoval, kopa ludi minuje z ideologickych dovodov, ak celkovy vykon siete padne (preco nie), tak to bude to co siet zas drzat. On ten komercny mining skutocne nie je nic moc profitabilne, ani nemoze byt, pokial nemas zasadny technologicky naskok.

0000010100063540000635900573432009292973092930400929304309293101092934260929345009293514

Radsej by si mohol poskytnut nejake podlozene data ze preco si myslis ze velka cast siete je schopna ignorovat spotove ceny a konkurencny dopyt od AI. A zhruba aka cast.

Samozrejme ze mining nie je moc profitabilny(nikde ine netvrdim nechapem co vyvracias) a nutne predpoklada ze bitcoiny predaju v buducnosti za vyssie ceny a tu zas vznika zavislost na spekulativnom kapitale ktory si musia poziciavat = dalsi zdroj nestability ked sa ten presunie inde.

000001010006354000063590057343200929297309293040092930430929310109293426092934500929351409293535

Nemyslim si ze je to nutne velka cast, ale to je pre mining takmer jedno. Funkciu ktoru siet poskytuje by podobne dobre poskytovala aj s desatinovym vykonom.

Co sa tyka profitability miningu, tak pokial spekulujes na dalsi rast, nepotrebujes k tomu mining, a si ovela flexibilnejsie a nemas viazane prostriedky.

00000101000635400006359005734320092929730929304009293043092931010929342609293450092935140929353509293687

Keby nahle 10x spadol vykon tak by si cakal az desatkrat viac na difficulty adjustment (prinajhorsom 20 tyzdnov). Nasledne difficulty sa maximalne moze upravit faktorom 4 cize dalsia perioda by trvala zas vyse 4 tyzdne a az potom by doslo k prisposobeniu a normalnej funkcnosti.

Pritom sa prislusne predlzuje cas najdenia bloku, hromadia sa nepotvrdene transakcie a prehlbuje sa nedovera. Moze nastat panika vypredaj.

To s prosperom uz neviem ako dlho vysvetlujeme ale ludia len lalalalala "nevidim ziaden problem, ja posielat transakcie nepotrebujem, pockam si na dalsi rast".

0000010100063540000635900573432009292973092930400929304309293101092934260929345009293514092935350929368709293755

no ak by si spravil softfork (ako sa uz v minulosti stalo), alebo myslis ze by bol niekto v takomto pripade proti?

000001010006354000063590057343200929297309293040092930430929310109293426092934500929351409293535092936870929375509293830

Neviem. Urcite by to neslo hladko.

00000101000635400006359005734320092929730929304009293043092931010929342609293450092935140929353509293687092937550929383009293940

Preco, kto ma motivaciu byt proti? Vsetci co su na btc nejakym sposobom zainteresovani (aby fungoval) nemaju dovod byt proti.

0000010100063540000635900573432009292973092930400929304309293101092934260929345009293514092935350929368709293755092938300929394009293987

V prvom rade preto ze by slo o hardfork, softforky su spatne kompatibilne(toto netusim ako spravit), dlho sa to pripravuje, spisuje sa BIP, potom mineri hlasuju(cize mining musi nejako fungovat).

000001010006354000063590057343200929297309293040092930430929310109293426092934500929351409293535092936870929375509293830092939400929398709294034

historicky mame niekolko pripadov, kedy doslo k oprave bugov radovo v ramci hodin. Ak sa komunita sa zhodne ze je to zjavna funkcna vada (co ak skutocne dojde k pomalemu predlzovaniu budu), tak nevidim uplne dovod na nejaku schizmu

000001010006354000063590057343200929297309293030

Heh, to je riadny click-bait titulok, len za to že nejakí veľkí hráči idú investovať do zlata namiesto krypta :-D

A zaujímavé na tom je to, že dôvera je celá v BTC. Keď klesá cena BTC, tak automaticky klesá cena aj pre SOLanu a všetky ostatné kryptomeny. Alebo si niektoré non-flat-related držia ceny?

00000101000635400006359005734320092929730929303009293114

tak, tá dôvera v krypto celkovo, je preto hlavne založená na BTC, lebo má najväčší podiel na trhu. čiže padá BTC, padá celá dôvera investorov v "rizikové/vysoko volatilné investície" (krypto) - čiže presúvajú investovaný kapitál do "menej rizikových", do realit, dlhopisov, do drahých kovov, akcii, etf...