Re[14]: I sincerely hope that I have convinced you, my friend :) :: Something smarter than us is going to emerge


node:	Re[14]: I sincerely hope that I have convinced you, my friend :)
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parent:	Re[13]: I sincerely hope that I have convinced you, my friend :)
owner:	ode
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created:	12.12.2024 - 10:00:18
updated:	12.12.2024 - 10:03:30

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ABSOLUT
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podla mňa skôr BTC a mining zakape za pár rokov, kvôli tej brutálne uhlíkovej stope čo to má, veď klimatická kríza stále viac "prihára", imho od toho čoskoro pôjdu investori preč.

tuto pred rokom písali (reddit ja viem, ale aj tak) že all time high a rástla odvtedy
https://www.reddit.com/r/solana/comments/18nbufx/realistically_at_peak_bull_do_you_think_sol_will/?rdt=63452

tuto tak isto to píšu že neni to hype len:
https://www.quora.com/Is-Solana-overhyped

tuto to isté:
https://thecryptogateway.it/en/solana-hype-use-cases/

to isté:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/beyond-the-hype-understanding-why-solana-is-thriving/articleshow/108289050.cms?from=mdr

to isté:
"Potential for Growth
Solana’s potential for growth lies in its ability to continue scaling while maintaining low costs and high speed. As more developers and projects choose Solana, its ecosystem will likely expand, driving further adoption and increasing its value. The growing interest in Web3, NFTs, and DeFi presents significant opportunities for Solana to capture market share."
https://mudrex.com/learn/is-solana-a-good-investment/

tuto vysvetlujú prečo:
https://solanacompass.com/solana/why-is-solanas-price-and-popularity-going-up-should-i-invest

čiže všetci len naprázdno hypujú, hej? dosť pochybujem. či prečo si to myslíš? vedel by si to pls nejako rozviesť?

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vsetky tieto spekulacie o utilite su podla mna za sucasneho stavu krypto este prilis predcasne, cena zatial odzrkadluje hlavne spekulaciu. zatial ziadna krypto-mena nema nejaky rozumny use-case, resp. neriesi nic, co sa principialne neda dosiahnut aj fiatom a tiez treba povedat ze su velke tlaky proti zasadnej adopcii krypta.

preto su toto vsetko zatial este len plane kecy. vsetky predikcie su ciste hopium. napr. aj sol - ledger je este stale v beta verzii, kludne sa moze stat ze to vsetko padne a dovi. je asi pravdepodobne, ze btc bude dlhodobo rast ale ostatne, boh vie. tym nechcem povedat ze sa na tom neda zarobit :)

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Plus pri tej predikcii vývoja ceny je potrebné vziať do úvahy aj tie faktory čo v tých článkoch píšu: rozdiel vlastností toho SOLana blockchainu (hlavne: Proof Of Stake + Proof Of History + TowerBFT,...), oproti trebarz BTC blockchainu (Proof Of Work konsenzus, mining). A tiež nové funkcie ktoré predošlé nemali.

Pri kryptomenách ako SOL alebo ETH 2.0, (ktoré fungujú na Proof Of Stake konsenze, a stakingu) je hlavným problémom bezpečnosť, lebo keď by niekto skúpil väčšiu coinov, mohol by získať dominantné postavenie medzi validátormi blokov a potom ak by mal zlé úmysly, mohol by podvádzať pri validácii.
Čiže ten "Byzantine generals problem"

Solana to práve vyriešila novým systémom Proof Of History + TowerBFT (Tower Byzantine Fault Tolerance), čo je brutálne plus pre bezpečnosť toho blockchainu.

Viac info: Byzantine Fault Tolerance in Crypto: What Is It?

Aj tu: Solana is the only blockchain that employs the Proof of History algorithm.

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veď mne je jasné že sa to ťažko predpovedá. dá sa to s určitou mierou neistoty, ale nedá sa na to spoliehať.
krypto je (aspoň pre mňa, v rámci diverzifikácie investovania) hlavne uchovávatel hodnoty, s predpokladom že dlhodobo jeho cena porastie; na špekulovanie (dole kupovať a hore predávať) nemám ani čas ani chuť. a je mi jasné kvôli tej vysokej volatilite to základné pravidlo investovania do crypta: nikdy do toho nedávaj prachy, ktoré by ti v prípade pádu ceny chýbali.

a btc, teraz vedie, to áno, mal by sa imho vziať v úvahu aj ten ekologický dopad tej brutálnej spotreby elektriny na mining (všetky kryptomeny používajúce POW konsenzus), čo v stále zhoršujúcej sa klimatickej kríze bude podla mňa stále viac rozhodujúci faktor pre investorov. hlavne keď bude ešte pár ďalších klimatických konferencii, kde nič poriadne nedohodnú a bude sa naozaj už citelne oteplovať (za pár rokov)

edit: typos

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pekny priklad je kazdy PoS coin. preco uz davno nepredbehli BTC ked je PoS taky super?

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Nižšie som rozanalyzoval tie ostatné coiny.

Solana je len od 2020, akú cenu mal BTC 4 roky po vzniku? skoro takú istú ako SOL:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin

A tie iné coiny čo si písal: (a áno, AI generated texty beriem s grain of salt, ale zase ani ich neodmietam brať v úvahu, ako niektoré idčka tu)

ADA Cardano, tuto vysvetlenie prečo od vzniku v 2015 nestúplo tak na cene, aj keď je POS:
https://chatgpt.com/share/675870cd-8a10-800d-ad54-f469b386f5f4
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DASH: tuto prečo nerástla cena: predpokladám že aj preto lebo to je POW - čiže BTC klon, tam moc neni prečo rásť, keď BTC bol prvý.
"Conclusion
Dash's price has not grown consistently due to a combination of competition, regulatory issues, limited adoption, and shifts in market preferences. However, its innovative governance model and focus on fast, low-cost transactions still give it a niche in certain markets. For a price resurgence, Dash would likely need significant real-world adoption or major technical advancements to regain investor and user interest."

https://chatgpt.com/share/675aa8eb-f9ec-800d-b922-0359eb375322

"The currency was launched in January 2014 as "Xcoin" by Evan Duffield, as a fork of the Bitcoin protocol....As of 2018, coins were mined using a proof of work algorithm with a hash function called "X11", with eleven rounds of hashing, and the average time to mine a coin was around two and a half minutes."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dash_(cryptocurrency)
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LTC zase POW, čiže zase BTC klon, jasné že nerastie, keď BTC zobral market share ako prvý a klony už nič nové neprinášajú.

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MATIC Polygon: existuje od 2017, POS, práveže rástol, len potom trocha padol, čo ale nič nehovorí o budúcom vývoji:
https://www.coindesk.com/price/polygon

toto o tom hovorí AI: TLDR: Conclusion
While MATIC may not have shown linear growth, it has demonstrated significant upward movement since its inception. Market adoption, strategic partnerships, and its response to Ethereum’s scaling issues will continue to influence its future price trajectory.

https://chatgpt.com/share/675aaad0-e894-800d-b668-111b85a0497c

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IOTA: OTA is an open-source distributed ledger and cryptocurrency designed for the Internet of things (IoT).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IOTA_(technology)

tuto AI píše prečo sa nepresadila: TLDR: Investors often compare long-term gains with the ecosystem’s ability to adapt and deliver, and IOTA’s progress has not matched early expectations so far.
https://chatgpt.com/share/675aab5a-7a6c-800d-9a03-2a37dbd0b7b1

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XPR, používa nejaký iný proof konsensus než POW alebo POS:

"The XRP Ledger operates on a consensus protocol that differs from traditional proof-of-work (PoW) and proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanisms.[6][2] Transactions are validated by a network of independent validators who reach consensus every 3 to 5 seconds, enabling rapid transaction settlement.[6] Users rely on a trusted list of validators known as the Unique Node List (UNL). While this approach provides faster transaction validation and security, though it has led to discussions about centralization within the network."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XRP_Ledger#:~:text=The%20XRP%20Ledger%20operates%20on,seconds%2C%20enabling%20rapid%20transaction%20settlement.

tuto AI hovorí prečo moc nerástlo: TLDR: Despite these challenges, XRP remains a major player in the crypto space, and its future price movements will likely depend on the resolution of regulatory issues, broader market trends, and its ability to achieve meaningful adoption for its intended use case.
https://chatgpt.com/share/675aac5f-7fb0-800d-aea1-fa9ce3dc88d3
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A na záver role-play prompt pre AI, nech predikuje či SOL prekoná súčasnú cenu 230.69 USD a či má potenciál rásť, čiže urob si záver sám:

"Now lets talk about solana crypto. if you would put yourself in a role of an crypto currency expert and long time predictor, would you say that Solana has a potential to rise above the current level of 230.69 USD? If yes, please list your arguments for your prediction"
https://chatgpt.com/share/675aad5f-958c-800d-8bc7-7c802d688d18

Nič v zlom jasneže, ale mňa tvoje argumenty moc nepresvedčili.

A stále si vlastne neodpovedal na tú moju otázku, či vysoká uhlíková stopa miningu spolu so zhoršujúcou sa klimatickou krízou nepochová POW kryptomeny.