repost z 4chan:
The biggest concern right now is not the current CFR, but what the CFR will be when medical systems get overrun.
About 10% of infections need an IC bed and assisted breathing. If those IC beds and breathing machines run out, we have a serious problem and the CFR may shoot up.
We can use the growth factor of 1.2 (observed in i.e. Italy) to compute the number of days until the number of infections exceeds the number of IC beds.
# days until overrun = CEIL((log(# IC beds * (1 - % of IC beds taken)) - log(# infections))/log(growth factor))
I compute a best and "worst" case.
The best case is 70% of IC beds are taken.
The worst case is 90% are taken.
These estimates are very conservative, and in many countries the "worst" case is actually reality.
For example, in the Netherlands we have between 9 and 15 days until every ICU spot with a mechanical ventilation unit is taken and we run into serious problems trying to keep people alive.
(updated list march 10 2020)
Country (#infections / #beds)
>worst-best
Italy (9172/8000)
>0-6 days (Locally the medical system is already overrun. Field hospitals are being deployed)
Switzerland (374/ 1000)
>6-12 days
Sweden (248/700)
>6-12 days
Spain (1209/8000)
>9-15 days
Netherlands (321/ 1600)
>9-15 days
France (1073/5000)
>11-17 days
Belgium (239/2000)
>12-18 days
UK (321/5000)
>16-22 days
Germany (1176/25000)
>17-23 days
Luxembourg (3/200)
>24-30 days
You can google the number of IC beds per country yourself and check my computations.
I will keep updating these numbers.
I try to keep this post as clear and concise as possible.
For sources, comments and suggestions, please email: afjqru@protonmail.com
Thank you
