Re: Tirol Powder :: Remember, remember, the velvet November


node:	Re: Tirol Powder
template:	4
parent:	Tirol Powder
owner:	evad
viewed by:
created:	10.03.2020 - 10:47:19

cwbe coordinatez:
101
8333809
8837211
8703087
8720436
8720465

ABSOLUT
KYBERIA

permissions
you:	r,
system:	public
net:	yes

ked to takto pojde dalej, tak rakusko za tyzden moze byt tam, kde bolo taliansko pred tyzdnom

00000101083338090883721108703087087204360872046508720505

celá europa tam bude, nevidím jeden jediný dôvod, prečo by to malo byť inak

0000010108333809088372110870308708720436087204650872050508720511

tak snad nebudu v kazdej krajine kolabovat JISky ako v taliansku. dufam

000001010833380908837211087030870872043608720465087205050872051108720770

repost z 4chan:

The biggest concern right now is not the current CFR, but what the CFR will be when medical systems get overrun.
About 10% of infections need an IC bed and assisted breathing. If those IC beds and breathing machines run out, we have a serious problem and the CFR may shoot up.

We can use the growth factor of 1.2 (observed in i.e. Italy) to compute the number of days until the number of infections exceeds the number of IC beds.

# days until overrun = CEIL((log(# IC beds * (1 - % of IC beds taken)) - log(# infections))/log(growth factor))

I compute a best and "worst" case.
The best case is 70% of IC beds are taken.
The worst case is 90% are taken.
These estimates are very conservative, and in many countries the "worst" case is actually reality.

For example, in the Netherlands we have between 9 and 15 days until every ICU spot with a mechanical ventilation unit is taken and we run into serious problems trying to keep people alive.

(updated list march 10 2020)
Country (#infections / #beds)
>worst-best

Italy (9172/8000)
>0-6 days (Locally the medical system is already overrun. Field hospitals are being deployed)
Switzerland (374/ 1000)
>6-12 days
Sweden (248/700)
>6-12 days
Spain (1209/8000)
>9-15 days
Netherlands (321/ 1600)
>9-15 days
France (1073/5000)
>11-17 days
Belgium (239/2000)
>12-18 days
UK (321/5000)
>16-22 days
Germany (1176/25000)
>17-23 days
Luxembourg (3/200)
>24-30 days

You can google the number of IC beds per country yourself and check my computations.
I will keep updating these numbers.

I try to keep this post as clear and concise as possible.
For sources, comments and suggestions, please email: afjqru@protonmail.com
Thank you

00000101083338090883721108703087087204360872046508720505087205110872077008720786

lenze tie cisla extrapoloval na vaetkych nakazenych. napriklad taliansko 9k/8k - len 15% musi byt v nemocnici cize realne 1500k/8k. to dava kusok viac casu

0000010108333809088372110870308708720436087204650872050508720511087207700872078608720791