Re[3]: Bude horšie! Biznismen Doliak tvrdí, že politici o kríze klamú :: Something smarter than us is going to emerge


node:	Re[3]: Bude horšie! Biznismen Doliak tvrdí, že politici o kríze klamú
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parent:	Re[2]: Bude horšie! Biznismen Doliak tvrdí, že politici o kríze klamú
owner:	ma
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created:	20.08.2012 - 16:11:31

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ABSOLUT
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s tym, ze moze nastat vyraznsjei ekonomicke spomalenie suhlasim.
ceny paliv ale nevyzeraju, ze by nejako drasticky mali stupat. specialne v spomalujucej ekonomike. zemny plyn v USA je na rekordnych minimach. ropa tiez nieje nejako vysoko - a neplet si to s nadalej oslabujucim dolarov. oproti zlatu vyrazne oslabila za poslednych 10 rokov aj ked je pravda, ze tam skor posobi ten tlak hroziaceho kolapsu, ktory zdviha cenu zlata viac, nez ze by len dolar aktualne tak stracal na hodnote.

u nas na slovensku by nam vyssia teplota neuskodila.. a za 10 rokov sa bavime o akej teplote? +0.5 stupnov celzia? :) a vsetko je len teoria asi ako ci pozajtra bude prsat.

potraviny budu zdrazovat najme regulaciami, danami a inflaciou. zvysovanie oteplovanim mi prijde zanedbatelne. a cyklus oteplovania tiez moze raz skoncit.

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u nas na slovensku by nam vyssia teplota neuskodila.. a za 10 rokov sa bavime o akej teplote? +0.5 stupnov celzia? :) a vsetko je len teoria asi ako ci pozajtra bude prsat.

len škoda, že klimatické zmeny namiesto normálneho oteplenia o pár stupňov celzia spôsobia extrémy počasia. Veľké horká, silné mrazy, veľa zrážok a podobne. Zvyšovanie otepľovanie nie je zanedbateľné, napríklad teraz v USA. A podľa môjho názoru to bude ešte horšie.

Porovnávať vedecký konsenzus viac ako 90 % klimatológov o klimatických zmenách a fakte, že ich spôsobil človek k predpovedi počasia je podľa mňa až zľahčujúce danú situáciu (kkz, jaká veta :). Proste treba rátať so zvýšenými nákladmi kvôli tým extrémom počasia.
Neviem ktorý konkrétne cyklus máš na mysli, ale otepľovanie sa bude zrýchľovať (ako ukazujú nedávne štúdie) a aj vplyvom roztápania ľadovcov a permafrostu.

Inak to porovnanie zlata, doláru a ropy je zaujímavé.

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takto vyzera zero draft IPCC AR5
odvtedy je uz novsia verzia ale tu sa mi nepodarilo najst

5.5.2.4 Megadroughts and Floods
Drought and floods are recurring extreme climate events. There is ample historical evidence for their past important physical, economic, social and political consequences (Buckley et al., 2010; Buntgen et al., 2011; Graham et al.; Zhang et al., 2008). Evidence from tree rings, historical documents, stalagmites, lake sediments, peatlands, etc, indicates that severe megadroughts (by modern standards droughts of unusually long duration that typically exceed those observed in the instrumental records; [Woodhouse and Overpeck, 1998; Stahle et al., 2000; Cook et al., 2010]) are a recurrent feature in many regions including North America, east and south Asia, Europe, Africa and India [(Cook, 2007; Herweijer, 2007; Zhang, 2008; Zheng, 2006; Buckley, 2010; Buckley, 2010; Cook, 2010; Helama, 2009; Russell, 2007; Büntgen, 2010; Esper, 2007; Sinha, 2007; Shanahan, 2009; Neukom, 2010; Pfister, 2006; Touchan, 2008; Touchan, 2010; Pauling, 2007; Verschuren, 2000; Christie, 2009; Berkelhammer, 2010; Nicault et al., 2008)].

The occurrence and spatial extent of past megadroughts may be clustered over time following regime changes. There is evidence for more severe droughts during the LIA in South Asia, eastern Northwest China, and Southeast Asia, west Africa and parts of Europe [(Buckley, 2010; Sinha, 2007; Shao, 2010; Zheng, 2006; Zhang, 2008; Sinha, 2007; Sinha, 2007; Helama, 2009; Buntgen, 2011; Pauling, 2007; Cook, 2010 ; Russell, 2007; Shanahan, 2009)] compared to the predating MCA and the last century. In contrast, drought extent in North America, northern and central Europe, and East Africa were significantly greater during 900–1300 than during the LIA and the last century [(Cook, 2007; Cook, 2010; Herweijer, 2007; Helama, 2009; Luoto, 2010; Russell, 2007; Verschuren, 2000; Stager, 2005)]. Proxy information indicate, that intervals of severe drought in western Africa lasting for periods ranging from decades to centuries are characteristic of the monsoon and are linked to natural variations in Atlantic temperatures ([Shanahan et al., 2009]; see also Sections 5.5.2.1 and 5.6.2). Proxy reconstructions and model experiments suggest that variability in the tropical Pacific might partly account for the occurrence of megadroughts in North America with related teleconnections in all continents (Seager et al., 2008). A strengthening of the zonal SST gradient in the tropical Pacific via an enhancement of La Niña state and possibly warming of the Indian Ocean during periods of the MCA may have contributed to arid conditions in North America (Graham et al.; Seager et al., 2008), contrasting with wetter conditions in Asia (Graham et al., 2007). During the MCA, positive NAO conditions (see Section 5.5.5.3) and AMO phases may have favored wetter winter conditions in NW Europe and arid in NW Africa [(Graham, 2007; Esper, 2007; Touchan, 2008; Touchan, 2010)]. El Niño phases seem to have been more prominent during the LIA than the MCA, in coincidence with monsoon weakening Section 5.5.2.1) and drought occurrence in Asia (Buckley et al., 2010; Cook et al., 2010a),

…
Overall, multiple studies suggest that current drought and flood regimes are not unusual within the context of last 1000 years [(e.g., Cook et al., 2010; Seager et al., 2008; Graham et al., 2010)].

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extremy pocasia zapricinene globalnym oteplovanim? dal som to do googlu a nezda sa, ze by to bolo preukazane - mas nejaky rozumny link? ako ja viem ze sa to s oblubou vselikde vytahuje ako univerzalna pravda ale to este neznamena, ze je to pravda

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http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/08/05/drought-heat-waves-statistically-linked-to-climate-change-top-nasa-scientist/
je to trochu biased podla jeho nazorov ale statisticky to zrejme sedi

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neviem ci som sa do tejto debaty vlastne chcel pustat :)
co vravis na toto?: http://www.globalwarming.org/2012/08/03/john-christy-climate-data-maven/

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link na celu studiu je tu, urcite je lepsie si ju precitat ako tu mlatit prazdnu slamu.
na tamto nevravim nic, nezda sa mi to byt nejak relevantne + cei.org bude urcite epitom vedeckej metody.

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priamo reaguje na ten vyskum co si ty postol takze relevantne to vyzera byt :)
mozno som ti mal dat ento link kde je to napisane jasnejsie: http://www.globalwarming.org/2012/08/20/john-christy-on-summer-heat-and-james-hansens-pnas-study/
vyberam utrzok:
"Christy’s colleague Roy Spencer produced a chart of TMax using the same weather stations as NOAA. Spencer found that July 2012 was very hot, but not as hot as the summers of 1936 and 1934. More importantly, far more all-time TMax records were set in the 1930s than in any recent decade."
ak to hodlas zahrabat pod zem a naznacit ze mlatim prazdnu slamu tak ok, uz som si na tvoje maniere zvykol ;)

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Priamo by to reagovalo, keby pisalo o celom svete, ale pise myslim len o US (oprav ma ak sa mylim) - preto Hansen pouziva zaznamy od roku 1951, ze dovtedy celosvetove spolahlive zaznamy s ktorymi by sa dali porovnavat novsie neexistuju. Ze v 30s bolo v US teplo neznamena az tak vela pre zvysok sveta. Okrem toho nevidim ako spochybnuje statistiku tej studie, asi nijak.

Okrem toho samozrejme by sa to dalo zahrabat pod zem aj kvoli tomu ze cei.org nie je institucia zaoberajuca sa vedeckou cinnostou a publikovanim peer-reviewed studii ale politickou agendou. Oni to ani nijak neskryvaju, tak neviem preco by sme sa mali tvarit ze ta reakcia je nieco vedecke.

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jasne, ale top scientist z nasa a cela nasa sponzorovana americkou vladou je uplne nestranna. aj peer-review proces ako funguje momentalne je uplne v pohode. predpokladam, ze vsetky negativne clanky o tom ako to funguje je len konspiracia od ludi, ktorych kazdy mesiac unasaju mimozemstania a chcu s nimi mat sex.
opat si sa ukazal ako objektivne a konstruktivne vies pristupovat k problemu: ociernit a zamiest pod koberec.
hlavne sranda je ako velmi sa ohanas vedeckymi clankami ale ked dostanes jeden na oplatku tak sa nim nezaoberas, pretoze ho nevydali tie spravne autority.
nuz, si hlboko veriaci clovek zda sa, tak to nechajme radsej tak, nebudem ti predsa brat tvoje pismo svate.

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NASA nie je nestranna, ale je vedecka (za Busha mali dost problemy).
Peer-review proces nie je dokonaly (ako ani nic ine), ale je vyrazne lepsi ako ziaden. A je tu istota, ze ak typci spravili v clanku chybu, vdaka pozornosti inych vedcov sa na nu skor alebo neskor pride.
To co si postol ty sa ani len netvari ako veda. Daj mi akceptovane vedecke clanky, nie produkty partizanskych thinktankov. To nie je ziadna konspiracia, ved oni charakter svojej cinnosti neskryvaju, su uplne otvoreni.