Re[2]: 02.07.2010-23:05:30 :: Something smarter than us is going to emerge


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parent:	Re: 02.07.2010-23:05:30
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created:	02.07.2010 - 23:29:09

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ABSOLUT
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keby zas cakal uruguajsky brankar v strede tak by mozno nechytil tie dve rozhodujuce.

urcite okolo toho existuje x serioznych odbornych studii a statistik od ludi co sa tomu venuju cely zivot a doteraz nikdo neprisiel na to, ze je lepsie stat v strede miesto odhadovania smeru strely? a ty si kolko tych penalt pochytal? tie vo fifa 2010 nepocitajme :)

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to su take studie...
Kingson tipoval smer. dobre kopnute nechytil, zle kopnute nechytil.
Keby Kingson cakal, dobre kopnute by aj tak nechytil ale tie dve lacno kopnute ano.
toto plati pri kazdom penaltovom rozstrele.

navyse keby to brankari trenovali, reflexy a tak, vedeli by chytit aj narocnejsu strelu.
tipovanie je picovina.

ale staci kopat penalty ako ghana kopla tie prve dve v rozstrele a brankar nema sancu.
dobre kopnuta penalta sa neda chytit :)

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trepes

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big time!

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"to su take studie..." sorry, ale tieto tvoje krcmove mudrosti bez ziadnej realnej skusenosti nezneju o nic serioznejsie.

myslis, ze brankari netrenuju reflexy?

s tou poslednou vetou sa da rozhodne suhlasit.

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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V8H-4MWXT31-1/2/de2ed05c062a4eb553de83c8a19dee3c

In soccer penalty kicks, goalkeepers choose their action before they can clearly observe the kick direction. An analysis of 286 penalty kicks in top leagues and championships worldwide shows that given the probability distribution of kick direction, the optimal strategy for goalkeepers is to stay in the goal’s center. Goalkeepers, however, almost always jump right or left. We propose the following explanation for this behavior: because the norm is to jump, norm theory (Kahneman, D., & Miller, D. T. (1986). Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. Psychological Review, 93, 136–153) implies that a goal scored yields worse feelings for the goalkeeper following inaction (staying in the center) than following action (jumping), leading to a bias for action. The omission bias, a bias in favor of inaction, is reversed here because the norm here is reversed – to act rather than to choose inaction. The claim that jumping is the norm is supported by a second study, a survey conducted with 32 top professional goalkeepers. The seemingly biased decision making is particularly striking since the goalkeepers have huge incentives to make correct decisions, and it is a decision they encounter frequently. Finally, we discuss several implications of the action/omission bias for economics and management.

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tej uruguajec co sa rozbiehal 20 metrov, to som uplne vedel, ze to da do hladiska.
a ten ghanan, co to kopal z miesta, to bola jasna placirka do rohu.
vela zalezi na tom, ako sa hrac rozbieha, brankari merkuju penalty hracov z inych zapasov atd..
stat v strede je rozhodne kokotina. :D

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no tu prvu by chmatol urcite

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urcite? ako vies? :)

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ved isla asi pol metra od stredu.. ani to nie.

proste ked brankar tipuje smer a penalta je dobre kopnuta nechyti ani ked uhadne smer (druha penalta ghany).

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Nech by isla aj 10 cm od stredu, nemozes napisat urcite, mozno tak velmi pravedepodobne. Mozno by sa potkol a zlomil si krk. Jednoducho sa to nestalo tak mozes iba predpokladat nie konstatovat.

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jednoducho - je to brankar :)

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jaj, tak to uz hej. ja som si myslel, ze mas nejaky prehravac alternativnej minulosti :)