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Ruske firmy od augusta 2008 neschopne refinancovat svoj dlh cez emisie cennych papierov

Nikto zo zahranicia im nepozicia ani dolar.

No Russian company has raised money through foreign bond sales since August, compared with $80 billion raised by more than 200 companies in Latin America and Asia outside of Japan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Yields on bonds due next year from Moscow-based Transcapitalbank and JSC AIKB Tatfondbank in the Russian republic of Tatarstan are trading at yields above 80 percent, up from 12 percent in August.

“The primary market is dead,” said Stanislav Ponomarenko, a fixed-income analyst at ING Groep NV in Moscow. “I wouldn’t be too surprised if there are no bond deals done by Russian corporates for most of 2009, if not the entire year.”

- ruske firmy potrebuju prefinancovat rocne ~100mld$ dlhu
- za posledne tri mesiace 15 krat devalvovali Rubel, cize ten kurz k dolaru uz nie je to co byval.. 35 percentny pokles, za vydatneho boja proti trendu palenim svojich devizovych rezerv
- za posledny pol rok devizove rezervy vyrazne klesli
- statny rozpocet je nastaveny na ropu za 70$, momentalne je nad 40$ za barel

Vyzera to ako hra o cas.. firmy ktore maju spojku v Kremli maju na cas isty pristup k statnym fondom, ostatne maju smolu. ak sa to samo zazracne nefixne do konca tohto roka, tak fasa..




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L4ky
 L4ky      17.02.2009 - 20:10:54 , level: 1, UP   NEW
Ked si predtavim co by tento scenar znamenal pre EU banky tazko zainvestovane v Rusku (pozicky ~500mld Euro.. vid prispevok nizsie), tak toto by potom zvladol asi iba Fiko krizeny so Supermanom :)

"I think that it's becoming clear that the Kremlin is going to let the banks fail. Russia only has $350 billion in foreign currency reserves left, or 35 weeks at the current burn rate, which doesn't factor in that Russia will also run a large fiscal deficit this year. Russian banks borrowed euros and lent rubles, and they can't pay back the euros unless crude goes back to $75. Cutting back on production just pushes up the breakeven price.

Be prepared for the Russian banks to fail, Putin and his buddies will put the banks under 'state control' (meaning Putin and his friends will now own the Russian financial sector). With them in control, they'll tell the European banks to mark down the loans by over 50% (basically a take it or leave it proposition), which will bring the euro into parity with the dollar."

zdoj