04.07.2025-16:33:34 :: Remember, remember, the velvet November


node:	04.07.2025-16:33:34
template:	4
parent:	Bitcoin (The Church of Satoshi and Latter Day Coins)
owner:	ulkas
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created:	04.07.2025 - 16:33:34

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ABSOLUT
KYBERIA

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miner co kedysi mal 200k coinov zacal consolidovat stare adresy:
https://x.com/jconorgrogan/status/1941128251856032055

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Je to celkom vtipne, obzvlast v kontexte toho pre-halving narativu o tom ako znizenie supply vystreli cenu radikalne nahor.

A zrazu hokus-pokus, jedna velryba sa otoci na druhy bok a da do pohybu tolko shbitcoinov kolko budu mineri krvopotne dolovat najblizsieho pol roka...

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Skus si rozanalyzovat dlhodobe a kratkodobe vplyvy.

Znizenie pritoku novych mincii do siete nesposobi "radikalne vystrelenie ceny nahor", ten len spomali inflaciu. Radikalne pohyby ceny su sposobovane ocakavaniami ludi, a ich pokusmi o predpovedanie reakcii ostatnych. Dlhodobo ale spomalenie inflacie samozrejme vplyv na cenu mat bude, a to znacny.

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co myslite, ze je dovodom? ja osobne si nemyslim, ze niekto, kto chce zrealizovat zisk, by mal potrebu zrovna narazovo predat take kvantum. skor sa mi vynaraju taketo moznosti:

- konsolidacia penazeniek a nejaky dlhodobejsi projekt, napriklad prevadzkovanie LN supernodov
- kradez coinov v priamom prenose
- rodina si deli dedicstvo, napriklad mozno rodina hala finneyho

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ocakava sa velky dip po schvaleni Trumpovho billu, mozno to precital a chce profit

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Hayes mal clanok, ktory uz stiahli ale tu je TLDR dzepetom spracovana verzia

TL;DR – the super-short version

Washington just discovered a new money hose:
Big-name U.S. banks (JPMorgan, Citi, etc.) will soon roll out their own dollar stablecoins. That lets them turn trillions of sleepy customer deposits into on-chain tokens that never sleep.

Why the government loves it:

Stablecoin balances can be stuffed into ultra-short T-bills.

With fresh capital-relief rules (SLR tweaks) the banks can lever those T-bills almost for free.

Net result: up to $6.8 T of instant demand for Treasury debt without the Fed needing to resume QE.

Why the Fed might help, too:
If Congress yanks the interest the Fed pays on reserves (IORB), banks will shove another $3.3 T of idle cash into the same T-bills. Add it up → ≈ $10 T of stealth bond-buying firepower.

Who loses?
Fintech issuers like Circle can’t pay interest and can’t compete with the “too-big-to-fail” guarantee. The new stablecoin rules (the “Genius Act”) basically lock them out.

Trading takeaways:

Short-term (Q3 ’25): a Treasury-cash-account refill could drain liquidity and chop Bitcoin/Nasdaq.

Medium-term (post-Jackson Hole): once the new debt ceiling is set and stablecoin plumbing is live, the liquidity wave returns; author targets Bitcoin six-figures → $1 M by ’28, Nasdaq 5×.

Biggest non-consensus play: long an equal basket of the big U.S. banks (184 % upside from stablecoin cost-savings + NIM).

Bottom line:
Stablecoins aren’t a DeFi revolution; they’re a back-door bailout mechanism for funding giant U.S. deficits while propping up risk assets. Ride the wave (Bitcoin, TBTF banks), don’t wait for Powell to say “QE.”