Why the Pandemic Probably Started in a Lab, in 5 Key Points :: Remember, remember, the velvet November


node:	Why the Pandemic Probably Started in a Lab, in 5 Key Points
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parent:	Covid-19 / Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
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created:	04.06.2024 - 00:12:06

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Although how the pandemic started has been hotly debated, a growing volume of evidence — gleaned from public records released under the Freedom of Information Act, digital sleuthing through online databases, scientific papers analyzing the virus and its spread, and leaks from within the U.S. government — suggests that the pandemic most likely occurred because a virus escaped from a research lab in Wuhan, China. If so, it would be the most costly accident in the history of science.
Here’s what we now know:

https://archive.is/8Y6jt

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no ja nechapem, preco krajiny a vlady na toto netlacia viac, ak by v tom bol aspon kusok slamky coho sa chytit - ved by sa dalo cinu zalovat o sposobene kompenziacie ci nie? nech pekne cvakaju 50 rokov

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problem moze byt ten ze realne asi nie su nepriestrelne dokazy a doteraz vsetci v ramci nehecovania emocii odmietali pripustit ze za to moze cina

ak by na to zacali tlacit, vyhrali by konspiratori, cina by to poprela a zacala by sa agresivne branit za stavu kedy nepriestrelne dokazy nie su a v ramci ciny sa uz zabetonovala propaganda ze to bol americanmi nasadeny virus ktory mal poskodit cinu

nic pozitivne by sa tym nedosiahlo

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v poslednych bodoch v casti dva celkom dost skandalizuje ("a feature they should have been on the lookout for, according to their own grant proposal," "Worse still [...] never asked the lab’s scientists if they had started the work described in Defuse.", "the Wuhan scientists would probably not have shared their most interesting newly discovered viruses with him. ")

Tieto veci, tak ako ich podava, nereflektuju ako funguje vyskum a ako vedec to musi velmi dobre vediet - brutalne mu to ubera kredibilitu.

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preco to nereflektuje ako funguje vyskum?

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to prve, lebo to je 1000000% hindsight. ten clanok, o ktorom hovori ma tri (!!!) strany. Hovorime o labe, ktory ma mozno 10-20 rokov skusenosti a ktovie-kolko ludi (ani jedno sa mi nechce pozerat), tych veci, ktore mali popisane v grantoch a ktore "should have been on the lookout for" su minimalne stovky. Toto bol uplne prvy clanok, jeho cielom bolo byt prvy a mat uplne basic veci.

to druhe, nie je vobec obvious co sa pytas ludi ktorych nevlastnis, _ak_ mas velmi dobre vztahy, _ak_ mas prilezitost, a _ak_ sa ti s niekym dobre komunikuje, tak sa mozes opytat _nieco_. Tych veci co sa chces alebo mozes opytat su kvanta. S cinanmi sa kvoli kulturnej a jazykovej bariere komunikuje vo vseobecnosti velmi tazko, je to lab na druhom konci sveta (taketo veci sa spravidla _omnoho_ lahsie komunikuju osobne) a v tomto pripade nie je vobec jasna dynamika spoluprace - ci sa ich vobec mozes opytat (alebo ci ti povedia) nieco co moze byt v zasade konkurencne intellectual property. tl;dr aj vo vede, ci niekto nieco spravil sa mozes opytat kamosov pri pive, aj to len niekedy. spravidla.

to tretie, jednak uplne vari z vody ("still being withheld from the public") a na zaklade toho robi zavery ("would probably not have shared"), hlavne ale to je v kontexte vedy uplne bezobsazne tvrdenie - ano, most interesting findings si velmi dobre rozmyslis kedy sharujes, a zvacsa chces aby to bolo v publikacii. prezentuje to ako nejaky argument alebo co ale teda, aspon mne, absoultne unika ze v akej 'chain of evidence' to chcelo byt.

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nemam cas sa znova pretransformovat na epidemiologa, ale aj tu to daka good lookin pani dava dole

https://x.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1797798090621231565