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The results show that the observed number of deaths in 2020 was close to the expected number with respect to the empirical standard deviation; approximately 4,000 excess deaths occurred. By contrast, in 2021, the observed number of deaths was two empirical standard deviations above the expected number and even more than four times the empirical standard deviation in 2022. In total, the number of excess deaths in the year 2021 is about 34,000 and in 2022 about 66,000 deaths, yielding a cumulated 100,000 excess deaths in both years. The high excess mortality in 2021 and 2022 was mainly due to an increase in deaths in the age groups between 15 and 79 years and started to accumulate only from April 2021 onward. A similar mortality pattern was observed for stillbirths with an increase of about 9.4% in the second quarter and 19.4% in the fourth quarter of the year 2021 compared to previous years.
https://www.cureus.com/articles/149410-estimation-of-excess-mortality-in-germany-during-2020-2022#!/

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bugy
 bugy      08.06.2023 - 14:31:27 (modif: 08.06.2023 - 14:32:47), level: 1, UP   NEW !!CONTENT CHANGED!!
FyD2zx5WwAETP4o?format=png&name=medium

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ziman
 ziman      29.05.2023 - 17:33:46 , level: 1, UP   NEW
A ako teda vieme, ze ta krivka nadmernej umrtnosti nekopiruje trebars krivku otvarania spolocnosti? V clanku sa to velmi nerozobera okrem jednej nepriamej zmienky na konci.

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bugy
 bugy      29.05.2023 - 18:07:14 (modif: 29.05.2023 - 18:08:40), level: 2, UP   NEW !!CONTENT CHANGED!!
to samozrejme nevieme - ako ale otvaranie spolocnosti sposobi odchylku 2SD v umrtnosti ked zly virus uz zabijal cely rok vsetkych a excess deaths bolo len 4000?

ja to vidim skor na tuto krivku:
sgDZ6Fa.png


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ziman
 ziman      29.05.2023 - 23:40:54 , level: 3, UP   NEW
no tym, ze spolocnost prestane splostovat krivku, ako bolo cely prvy rok omielane

pripada mi divne ako prvu hypotezu brat ockovanie, ked otvaranie spolocnosti mi pripada ako ovela ocividnejsi prvy tip

niezeby som sa tomu teda rozumel, ofc

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bugy
 bugy      30.05.2023 - 00:52:58 , level: 4, UP   NEW
https://apnews.com/article/health-education-sports-business-government-and-politics-c3e74740f983b8ecaaac7b72d53b061a

hm, lenze im v aprili zacali curfews takze nie otvaranie ale naopak..

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