The Dangerous Illusion That Governments Know How to Fight Coronavirus

In extreme situations, know-how is acquired only in the aftermath of events. Right now, we need social and political psychologists who understand theories of crisis management, no less than we need medical personnel



Decision making that is motivated by risk aversion is fundamentally different from decision making that is motivated by hope. The asymmetry between them is clear and has been proved in innumerable studies in psychology and economics. As a society, it is incumbent on us to find the right balances between fear and hope. And not through experts who live in linear illusion, but through humble recognition of the complexity of systems. As a physician who has been occupied for many years with managing patients with complex cases, I have to say that not a day goes by without my recalling the immortal words of Sir William Osler: “Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability.” The eruption of the coronavirus also obeys that rule.
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