Virus sa unavil :: Remember, remember, the velvet November


node:	Virus sa unavil
template:	4
parent:	Covid-19 / Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
owner:	EZ
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created:	20.04.2020 - 00:51:40
updated:	20.04.2020 - 00:55:38

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Coronavirus infections have peaked in much of the rich world

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mate ten clanok niekto cely pls?

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NEVER BEFORE has a simple chart affected so many people. As the novel coronavirus spread across the world, country after country introduced restrictions on travel and social interaction in an effort to “flatten the curve” of new infections. Such efforts resulted in mandatory lockdowns for some 3.9bn people in 92 countries by April 8th, according to data compiled by the Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford University.

Those restrictions are starting to be eased. This week Spain allowed some factory and construction workers to go back to work. Austria permitted some non-essential shops to reopen; Germany will do the same next week. Denmark reopened primary schools and nurseries after over a month of lockdown. Italy has permitted some small shops to re-open in parts of the country.

Timing the process is tricky; countries want to make sure that infections are decreasing convincingly before ending lockdowns. One problem is that countries have adopted vastly different testing regimes, so may have only imperfect information on the prevalence of the virus. Britain, for example, has tested just 341,000 of its citizens to date; Germany, a country with just 23% more people, has tested 1.7m, or more than five times as many.

Even so, counting the number of confirmed new cases can provide a leading indicator of where a country’s epidemic is heading, assuming that testing systems remain more or less constant. Our charts above are smoothed using a seven-day moving average, and are adjusted for the size of a country’s population to allow cross-country comparisons, imprecise as they may be. Using the Blavatnik School’s data, we define the start of a lockdown as the moment when restrictions on travel become both mandatory and countrywide. Iceland has restrictions on social gatherings but not on movement.

Although a country’s absolute levels of infection by this measure may be unreliable, the shape of its epidemic curve is telling. Some countries appear to be past the worst. Of the 16 rich countries shown in the chart above, ten show decreasing rates of new infections following a clear peak. In Austria, new cases topped out three weeks ago and the current rate of infections is now 80% below the peak. In Italy, which has suffered more than 22,000 deaths (the highest in Europe), new infections peaked on March 26th, but have fallen by only 35% below the peak.

For the countries in our sample, lockdowns have already been in place for about a month. But the fight against the coronavirus is likely to be a long one. Where new infections have peaked, they have done so some 15 days after lockdown, on average; some are still rising. The maximum death tolls come some weeks after the peak in infections. And bringing the infections under control will take longer still. Until there is a vaccine or a drug to kill the coronavirus, a resurgence of the epidemic will be an ever-present danger.

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vdaka, presne toto som chcel vidiet. Tie grafy by mali/mohli byt podobne, aspon komparativne tam kde sa zaviedli opatrenia (resp. nezaviedli), ale mam pocit ze nie sa.

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asi sa na tom podiela aj efektivita testovania

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iste, je tam mrte faktorov, ale aj tak...

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Zaujimave ze najhorsie bol na tom Island... Podla googlu tam maju jedno z najextenzivnesich testovani. Stats maju:
Confirmed 1,771
Recovered 1,328
Deaths 9

To je smrtnost 0.5%

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toto 0.5% ale nechci porovnat s 0.1% smrtnosti chripky.

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Ake cislo je aktualne nakazenych? Voci comu sa tych 0.5% vo svete pocita?

Niekde na zaciatku virologovia teoretizovali o 70% prestupe spolocnostou. Ak by si chcel z toho co sa hovori nieco mysliet ziak prveho stupna ZS ... ak v roku 2020 pride do kontaktu 70% teda 7 miliard ludi ... pri umrtnosti 0,5 % ak som sa nepomylil umrie na koronu v roku 2020 nieco okolo 35 milionov ludi na celom svete.

Takze ak je pravda ta prognoza 70% a 0.5% tak sa este len rozcvicujeme kedze data z 18teho:

" Európa je s najmenej 1 136 672 prípadmi infekcie vrátane 100 501 úmrtí najhoršie zasiahnutým svetadielom. Najvyššie počty obetí v rámci nej eviduje Taliansko (23 227), Španielsko (20 043), Francúzsko (19 323) a Británia (15 464). Na celom svete si koronavírus dosiaľ vyžiadal prinajmenšom 157 163 obetí. Globálne sú krajinou s aktuálne najvyšším počtom obetí Spojené štáty, kde došlo už k viac ako 38 000 úmrtiam. "

~ What a time to be alive... ~

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virus sa nevie unavit, ale to vies. toto je len odraz opatreni, ked sa uvolnia, pojde to hore. pociatocny stav je horsi ako bol na zaciatku (jedine ze by to uz ticho preslo populaciou ale to je bullshit)

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Okrem islandu, kde nema zmysel nieco obmedzovat, tak budu postupovat podla hammer and dance. Cim horsi stav po faze hammer, tym sa bude menej tancovat ofc. My sme vo fáze - že ne se kvá.