zhrnak od epidemiologa z Harvardu:

Q. Are the restrictions working to do that?

A. Some evidence is beginning to accumulate that we may be able to accomplish that in many places. New York is already near the maximum it can handle, and the question is whether it will come down. There's maybe some hint that's happening. And in other places we'll see whether it goes up more and then peaks in the next week or so, or whether it keeps on going up and exceeds capacity in various places.

Q. Then what?

A. If that works out well, then there's the big question of what do we do next? Because if we relax restrictions, as we saw in the 1918 pandemic, and as we've seen probably in China now, there's every reason to expect a resurgence of cases and we're back in the same problem. On the other hand, keeping these restrictions in place is economically disastrous. Under this scenario, we're in a dilemma, and I don't think anyone has found a good answer.

Q. So what do we do?

A. Some ideas out there are probably worth trying, including essentially trying to bring cases down in each locality to a point where they can be controlled individually. There is a contingent of people — a number of them at my university with whom I disagree very, very strongly — who are saying that we need to implement Chinese-style out-of-home mandatory quarantine and isolation as part of that response strategy for containment. The evidence that that is necessary is slim, and the evidence that it would be acceptable in the United States is nonexistent. But there is that view.

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Q. What are the biggest unknowns?

A. To me, the enormous questions are about immunity. How much is there in the population now? How many of those people didn't even know they were infected? How protective is it? And then for the potential vaccine, how protective will immunity be? I think immunity is what's going to get us through to the other side. And that's the part that's still the biggest uncertainty.

Q. So how do you see things playing out?

A. If I had to make a prediction about how the interaction between social and scientific and public health factors will play out, I think there's going to be fatigue at some point. Some places are going to let up either after they've controlled the first peak or before they've controlled the first peak. Cases will reemerge, and because people are so tired of social distancing, it will take until the intensive care units are overwhelmed in that place to get people to crack down again, and then there will be some cycles of that. There are ways to try to avoid that, but they all involve this very long and destructive process of social distancing. It's easy to say as the public health person, this is what we need to do for public health. But I'm acutely aware that there are also other considerations, and I don't see a really good answer.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/08/coronavirus-is-big-one-harvard-epidemiologist/2975019001/