strasidelne citanie :: Remember, remember, the velvet November


node:	strasidelne citanie
template:	4
parent:	Covid-19 / Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
owner:	mike_x
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created:	07.04.2020 - 21:34:42

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UK will have Europe's worst coronavirus death toll, study predicts
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.

Looking at the measures taken by the UK to curb the spread of the disease, the institute says the peak is expected in 10 days’ time, on 17 April. At that point the country will need more than 102,000 hospital beds, the IHME says. There are nearly 18,000 available, meaning a shortfall of 85,000.

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At the peak the UK will see 2,932 deaths a day, the IHME forecasts.
By 4 August that would mean a total of 66,314 deaths – with a large estimate range of between 55,022 and 79,995 deaths, indicating the uncertainties around it.

The death toll in other European countries that are now struggling with Covid-19 will be lower, they say. Spain is projected to have 19,209 deaths by the same date, Italy 20,300 and France 15,058. All three countries have imposed tougher lockdown measures than the UK.
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neviem kde soudruzi z NDR udelali chybu ale nie je ziadna sanca ze by od dnes do augusta pribudlo v IT iba 3500 mrtvych ked im stale pribuda 600 denne.. Spanielsko a Francuzsko detto

bud je to preklep alebo si tie cisla vytiahli z riti

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niekde som cital, ze ten model je denne aktualizovany
ktovie, z ktoreho dna su tieto cisla

edit: tak nie. tie cisla vyzeraju rovnake na poslednom update
https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy

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do zaciatku Augusta su zhruba 4 mesiace

aj ked klesaju cisla mrtvych postupne a mozno v IT budu dlhodobo niekde okolo 200 denne aj tak je to strasne velky gap oproti clanku, v ktorom som cital ze neriesia az tak pocet nakazenych v tom modeli - ze sa zameriavaju na mrtvych.. Tak sa mi az nechce verit ze by to bolo tak velmi mimo

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nemam vlastny nazor, len som sem dal link na jeden z modelov sirenia nakazy
odchylka od skutocnosti sa bude dat denne sledovat. To je cele.

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jasne len pisem ze to snad nebude v UK az taky pruser oproti zvysku 'top' krajin

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ktovie. Ako som pisal, teraz je to velmi disciplinovane posledne 2-3 tyzdne, ale zaciatok nam usiel, podobne ako v Taliansku a Spanielsku - samozrejme, ze s tym rozdielom, ze v UK sme uz vedeli, ze sa nieco deje a jebalo sa na opatrenia.

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dufam, ze nie. mozno soudruzi s IHME urobili niekde chybu

Ferguson said he did not think the predictions could be relied on. “This model does not match the current UK situation,” he said, adding that the numbers used by the IHME were at least twice as high as they should be for current bed usage and deaths in the NHS. “Basically, their healthcare demand model is wrong, at least for the UK,” he said.

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ja viem, ze to je iba predpoved, ale stale je to zle.

napr. dnesok zatial najhorsi den - UK records highest daily death toll from coronavirus at 854
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-records-highest-daily-death-toll-from-coronavirus-854

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nehovorili dneska na tlacovke, ze rast sice je, ale ze nie je akceleracia; co zase dufaju, ze su prve znamky toho, ze zavedene opatrenia zacinaju posobit?

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Ja sa v tom nevyznam, ale ti, co dnes umieraju sa nakazili minimalne 2 tyzdne dozadu, ked neboli takmer ziadne opatrenia? A pocty novych pripadov (nakazenych, nie mrtvych) klesaju?

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ani ja sa v tom nevyznam :)
mam zapnuty guardian UK updaty a obcas tam popri praci kuknem ze co nove a pozrem vycuc z dennej tlacovky z Downing street.
uz ma to nejak prestava bavit sledovat

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Odkedy som furloughed malo sledujem, co sa deje. Podobne ako ty sledujem The Guardian, ale ovela menej, ako ked som v praci. A vecer si dam BBC News - ale to hlavne preto aby som pocul anglictinu, aku nikdy nebudem mat :) Takmer vobec netusim, co sa deje na Slovensku, kaslem na podcasty a spravy, radsej pozeram filmy. Viem o Velkonocnom lockoute iba.

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vies co ja som na svoj prizvuk hrdy :)
tu vsetci okolo mna maju prizvuk. na matike dominuje rusky a na computer science zase grecky prizvuk. :)

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meanwhile https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/apr/06/at-least-20-uk-phone-masts-vandalised-over-false-5g-coronavirus-claims

lebo rusko nepomoze ale podpalena antena urcite

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netvarme sa, ze podobne a viac prijebani ludia nie su v kazdej spolocnosti

Rusko tu nenosi takmer nikto, ale vsade kde sa pozries su odstupy medzi ludmi 2 metre.

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vsetci cinania ich nosia :) aspon v Liverpoole

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da real brexit

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uff :(