cwbe coordinatez:
101
8333809
8837211
8703087
8734426
8734504

ABSOLUT
KYBERIA
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you: r,
system: public
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total descendants::34
total children::5
show[ 2 | 3] flat


Mne sa nezda ze by to nebrali vazne. Skor sa zda, ze nic ine neriesia. Avsak dilema zostava co je appropriate a co je overreakcia (z hladiska shutdownu ekonomiky)... Pre zaujimavost som si vygooglil:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza

The overall burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths

The overall burden of influenza for the 2016-2017 season was an estimated 29 million influenza illnesses, 14 million influenza-associated medical visits, 500,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 38,000 influenza-associated deaths

The overall burden of influenza for the 2015-2016 season was an estimated 24 million influenza illnesses, 11 million influenza-associated medical visits, 280,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 23,000 flu-associated deaths

The overall burden of influenza for the 2014-2015 season was an estimated 30 million influenza illnesses, 14 million influenza-associated medical visits, 591,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 51,000 flu-associated deaths

The overall burden of influenza for the 2013-2014 season was an estimated 30 million influenza illnesses, 13 million influenza-associated medical visits, 347,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 38,000 flu-associated deaths


Kolko bude covid-19 2019/2020 ? Do 50k ?




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Trilobite
 Trilobite      03.04.2020 - 09:32:08 [1K] , level: 1, UP   NEW
ty to tu trollujes, ci o co ide?

serie ta, ze nebude to selfiecko na instagram z nejakej peknej destinacie, ktore si minule spominal?

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Thunder Perfect Mind
 Thunder Perfect Mind      03.04.2020 - 09:22:47 [5K] , level: 1, UP   NEW
Kolko bude covid-19 2019/2020 ? Do 50k ?
Pytas sa zlu otazku. Spravna otazka, ak uz robis tieto prijebane porovnania, by bola, kolko by mal covid-19 2019/2020 obeti, keby sa robili rovnake opatrenia ako pri sezonnej chripke, cize v podstate ziadne. V tom pripade by bolo v USA zrejme viac ako milion obeti (nejdem to presne pocitat, ale kludne si daj tu namahu).

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L4ky
 L4ky      03.04.2020 - 09:37:14 , level: 2, UP   NEW
toto je fakt rychla matematika.. pri konzervativnom odhade 50% populacie nakazenej, pri neregulovanom priebehu je umrtnost myslim 2%+ lebo pretlak systemu + nedostatok ochrannych pomocok a infekcie personalu... by to vyslo na 3+ miliony mrtvych priamo na covid a dalsich X mrtvych kvoli nedostatku kapacit, liekov, personalu na dalsiu zdravotnu starostlivost. proste uplna chripka..

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EZ
 EZ      03.04.2020 - 12:29:36 (modif: 03.04.2020 - 12:32:40), level: 3, UP   NEW !!CONTENT CHANGED!!
Trochu som dufal ze tie exponencialy nemozu ist do nekonecna a v absolutnych cislach sa to pri niecom inom strati... Ak je to fakt as simple as 2% z 50% z 350mil, tak to je civilizacny showstopper.

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blurec
 blurec      03.04.2020 - 12:49:07 [2K] , level: 4, UP   NEW
v skutocnosti sa nejedna o exponencialne ale o logisticke funkcie.

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L4ky
 L4ky      03.04.2020 - 12:40:02 (modif: 03.04.2020 - 12:40:34), level: 4, UP   NEW !!CONTENT CHANGED!!
keby to manazovali tak ako chripku (cize v podstate nulove opatrenia) tak by to boli asi tie 2%

stale je vsak pravdepodobnejsie ze opatrenia budu postupne pritvrdzovat takze to poriadne zredukuju.. fakt dufam ze nakoniec to bude nejaka zla flu season x2 alebo x3 aj ked sa kvoli tym opatreniam v podstate zruti ekonomika. amerika vsak moze tlacit peniaze takze maju vyhodu napriklad oproti slovensku

politik ktory by dopustil ze mu vymrie 2% krajiny skonci nastoknuty na kol, aj v amerike

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EZ
 EZ      03.04.2020 - 12:59:21 (modif: 03.04.2020 - 13:15:09), level: 5, UP   NEW !!CONTENT CHANGED!!
(1% z krajiny). Ak je to podla takehoto scenara, necakal by som ze sa bude ECB zdrziavat...

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L4ky
 L4ky      03.04.2020 - 14:23:23 , level: 6, UP   NEW
v ECB to uz riesia a budu asi specialne dlhopisy, o detajloch sa zase dohodnu nemci s francuzmi takze nam ostava len cakat

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ulkas
 ulkas      03.04.2020 - 08:27:39 , level: 1, UP   NEW
otazka by bola, kolko by bol covid bez opatreni. da sa spravit spodny odhad:

- jednoducho si na konci roka pozries cisla na chripku. ak ich bude stale tych 38 000, tak je to cele zle. ale ak ich bude povedzme 3800, a umrtia na covid 50k, to by znamenalo, ze bez opatreni by bol spodny odhad 500k mrtvych na covid.

samozrejme, chripkove cisla tento rok budu totalne nemeratelne, len som chcel zvyraznit porovnanie 38000 vs 50k

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L4ky
 L4ky      03.04.2020 - 09:16:00 , level: 2, UP   NEW
oficialne odhaduju 100-250k mrtvych zatial, uvidime ako sa im podari poriesit opatrenia

stale dufam ze sa nejakym zazrakom zmobilizuju

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blurec
 blurec      03.04.2020 - 09:22:58 , level: 3, UP   NEW
afaik, to je odhad "potvrdenych", to hore je odhad celkovych. a teraz je otazka, ked mame 100k potvrdenych umrti, vieme odhadnut kolko bolo tych umrti celkovo?

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L4ky
 L4ky      03.04.2020 - 09:29:13 , level: 4, UP   NEW
detaily su tu, je to 5 dni stare takze mozno uz casom aj upravia odhad.. teraz sa to tam rozbieha tak dufam ze sa spamataju a spravia riadne opatrenia aj ked s trumpom na cele to nebude lahke
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/29/fauci-how-many-coronavirus-deaths-in-us-estimate/

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imnot
 imnot      03.04.2020 - 06:36:46 , level: 1, UP   NEW
zalezi od intervencii a pripravenosti
Kym na sezonnu chripku mame vakcinu, zdravotnictvo s nou pocita a ma podstatne nizsiu mieru prenosu, s covidom nikto nepocita jeden clovek za tie dni co je presymptomaticky nakazi nasobne viac ludi (ktori nakazia nasobne viac ludi), zdravotnictvo nan nie je vobec pripravene, nas zivotny styl s tym nepocita (masky).

Takze kdekolvek od tisicok po miliony

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0x230FF1
 0x230FF1      03.04.2020 - 06:30:50 [3K] , level: 1, UP   NEW
dookola to tu prirovnavas k chripke, dobre som si vsimol?

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Brahmin
 Brahmin      03.04.2020 - 11:32:18 , level: 2, UP   NEW
A s cim inym?

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blurec
 blurec      03.04.2020 - 12:26:25 , level: 3, UP   NEW
preco je influenza relevantnejsia ako ine veci z tohto zoznamu?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_disease#Clinical_characteristics

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Brahmin
 Brahmin      03.04.2020 - 14:19:45 , level: 4, UP   NEW
Lebo ju ludia poznaju lepsie ako Coxsackievirus?

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blurec
 blurec      03.04.2020 - 14:44:25 , level: 5, UP   NEW
no takych chorob je stale vela. ale dajme tomu, ze je to preto, ze s tym ludia maju casto priamu skusenost a zaroven prejavy choroby su si podobne.

vzhladom na to, o kolko je COVID-19 infekcnejsi a nebezpecnejsi mi to ale pride ako prirovnavat odseknutie prsta s tym, ked si niekto poreze prst papierom. tiez podobne prejavy, tiez to ludia "poznaju lepsie" a tiez je to hlupe prirovnanie.

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Brahmin
 Brahmin      03.04.2020 - 14:50:28 , level: 6, UP   NEW
Kámo kľudne si to prirovnávaj k vonnej sviečke ak sa ti to podarí podať lepšie ako s chrípkou ;-) the world is your oyster

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pandrlak
 pandrlak      03.04.2020 - 10:30:43 , level: 2, UP   NEW
To je celkom logicke.

~ What a time to be alive... ~

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imnot
 imnot      03.04.2020 - 12:17:06 [1K] , level: 3, UP   NEW
Preco? Sars2 je coronavirus a chripka ortomyxvirus.

Lebsie by bolo prirovanie k sars alebo mers

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pandrlak
 pandrlak      03.04.2020 - 13:34:22 , level: 4, UP   NEW
Lebo chripka je v hovorovej reci velmi siroky pojem a u lekara je to konkretna diagnoza ... moj lajicky nazor.

~ What a time to be alive... ~

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imnot
 imnot      03.04.2020 - 13:56:37 , level: 5, UP   NEW
no dobre ale toto ochorenie nema okrem toho, źe je vírusove, malo spolocne s chripkou

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L4ky
 L4ky      04.04.2020 - 11:11:41 , level: 6, UP   NEW
cele je to imho o tom ze ked sa snazis niekomu podat nejaku informaciu, snazis sa na to pouzit pojmy ktore pozna, alebo si ich vie predstavit.. o chripke pocul kazdy tak preto sa to pouziva. jediny problem je ked niekto tvrdi ze je to len dalsia chripka co je problem

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pandrlak
 pandrlak      04.04.2020 - 07:01:12 , level: 6, UP   NEW
To je možné ... len to už nie je až taká všeobecná znalosť podľa mna. Avšak média sú na všeobecnú populáciu orientované.

~ What a time to be alive... ~