31.03.2020-11:14:29 :: Remember, remember, the velvet November


node:	31.03.2020-11:14:29
template:	4
parent:	Covid-19 / Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
owner:	Heaven and Hell
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created:	31.03.2020 - 11:14:29

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ABSOLUT
KYBERIA

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A call to honesty in pandemic modeling
vyborny clanok aj ked neodporucam citat ked nechcete pridat na pocite uzkosti z tohto celeho.

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two months of mitigations actually results in 50% more infections and deaths than two weeks of mitigations, since it pushes the peak of the epidemic to the winter instead of the summer, whose warmer months this model assumes causes lower transmission rates.
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toto je velmi pekna myslienka. a dost hrozostrasna, akurat ale v tom grafe nezapocitali moznost opakovanych opatreni. tj zaratali len 2 mesiace restrikcii a potom zase volny priebeh. kludne sa moze stat, ze s prichodom zimy sa na november+december znovu zavedu preventivne tieto pravidla. potom by sa ten peak oddalovat az do inej mutacie alebo najdenia rozumnej liecby ci vakciny

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dobry clanok