Britain :: Something smarter than us is going to emerge


node:	Britain
template:	4
parent:	Covid-19 / Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
owner:	imnot
viewed by:
created:	14.03.2020 - 14:20:16
updated:	14.03.2020 - 14:23:46

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ABSOLUT
KYBERIA

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system:	public
net:	yes

domINo

vysvetlenie co sa deje v UK:
https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518371651649538

(imo bs)

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Sestra mi prave pisala, ze dnes je posledny den v praci a ze uz budu mat od zajtra zatvorene. V telke vystupil nejaky minister a dal tak emotivnu rec aby si vsetci davali pozor a zatvorili sa doma, ze sa z toho rozplakala. Taktiez pisala ze Henley (on Thames) - kde zije a pracuje - je plne ludi, vsetci sa prechadzaju po centre alebo sedia v restauraciach a kaviarniach. IMHO to bude dobra shitshow o par dni....

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to byva kusok od mojej prace ;)

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keby z toho celeho fuckupu bol aspon taky vysledok, ze sociopati popierajuci vedu, resp neschopni najst si kvalitnych poradcov, by skoncili vo vrcholnej politike, bola by to aspon mala utecha.

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Hundreds of members of the scientific community have sent two open letters to the British government, voicing their concerns about the government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

One comes from 198 academics in the field of maths and science , calling for urgent measures of social distancing across the UK.

It says: “Going for “herd immunity” at this point does not seem a viable option, as this will put NHS at an even stronger level of stress, risking many more lives than necessary.”

Another letter has been signed by 164 behavioural scientists. It raises concerns about the idea of ‘behavioural fatigue’ - the idea that if the public are instructed to take preventative measures too early, they’ll eventually revert back to prior behaviour.

The letter suggests that this has been a cornerstone of British government policy on coronavirus and sheds doubt on the evidence behind this.

“While we fully support an evidence-based approach to policy that draws on behavioural science, we are not convinced that enough is known about “behavioural fatigue” or to what extent these insights apply to the current exceptional circumstances,” it says.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

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ako to vyzera u nas (zatial 8 reportovanych nakazenych): Liverpoolska univerzita rusi od pondelka prednasky a tutorialy, a prechadza sa na online vyuku.
vyskumne centrum kde robim sa uz tyzden pripravuje na shutdown. hlavne experimentalisti kvoly labakom a drahemu vybaveniu v nom.
Od januara dostavuju vsetci pravidelne updaty od univerizty ohladom situacie s COVID-19.
imo to riesia seriozne. teda aspon to co vidim.

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behavioural fatigue lol
problem replikacnej krizy nabera celkom iny vyznam v case pandemie

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madness
nerozumiem tej aritmetike balansovania, resp ako chcu bez opatreni obist taliansku cestu

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toto snad nemoze zozrat ani najvacsi just a flu denial

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toto sa neda citat.

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super komentare:

STAGE 1:nothing is going to happen.
STAGE 2:something is going to happen but we should do nothing about it.
STAGE 3:we should do something about it, but there is nothing we can do.
STAGE 4:maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late.

Italy: Lockdown
China : Lockdown
France: Close all schools and universities
Ireland: Close all schools and cancel mass gatherings
US: ban European flights
...
UK: ‘your loved ones are going to die lol’

Ireland: 80 confirmed cases. We have have to close all schools.
England: 600 confirmed cases and estimated 10000 people already have it. WASH YOUR HANDS!

at the beginning italy thought the virus was a joke, Now Uk is doing the same mistake.
Romania with only 53 cases closed all the schools
...in El Salvador, there are 0 cases and they closed all schools
...Lithuania jest 3 cases and all schools and universities closed
...Bulgaria with 20 cases closed all schools

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UK sa tymto pochova. Vsetci dobre vedia, ze herd immunity na tento virus nikdy fungovat nebude a pri dalsej pandemii to bude nanic. Taliansko 2 za 2 tyzdne.

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odhadujem ze v pondelok povedia ze po naliehani vedeckej komunity a medzinarodnych partnerov prehodnotili kroky a aj ked si mysila ze netreba robit paniku rozhodli sa prijat "predcasne" preventivne opatrenia uz teraz

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tak az v stredu :)

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Ten instikt nezastavi ani taky sebaisty zivocich ako Boris \D:/

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wtf, tu je dlhy zaznam aj s otazkami reporterov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_f6hLeBGtqw

vsetci sa pytaju ako keby boli zaplateni
ziadne obvinenie

a ujo johnson to zhrnul ze vsetko spravili najlepsie ako sa dalo a NOW is the time to close schools also
no budem pozorne sledovat ze kedze NOW zacina este len exponencialny tyzden pred spomalenim, tak ze ci si prizna vinu

do buducna ked sa niekto rozhodne mat science-based decisions bez toho aby zverejnil tu science, tak by to chcelo spravit stranku ze
www.HeyJohnsonStopKillingPeople.com
kde by boli dva grafy, jeden ked by zavrel skoly vcera, druhy ked zavrie skoly zajtra, a porovnanie kolko ludskych zivotov bude rozdiel

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poviem ti to takto
mozno britski obcania majU take moznosti ake my nie a aj obyvatelia nejako to kolektivne zvladnu

neverim ze taky narod ma vpici starcov a chorych
a hlavne my aku sme mali vyhodu ze sme boli neviem kolki :] oni tiez maju

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presne, mne samemu sa mi nechce verit, ze moje tvrdenie by mohla byt pravda

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tie stupne su z "yes, prime minister"
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=871882746613068
.)

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To by bolo kvalitne socialne inzinierstvo
Co by mohlo snad ist zle?

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zhrniem:

clovek si mysli ze plan UK je ze vsetci sa postupne nakazia, chranit budu len rizikove skupiny, skoly budu otvorene a ked bude pretazeny system tak spomalia rate tym ze zavru na chvilu skoly, vraj toto je plan ako vytvorit celospolocensku imunitu, ale nechcu to nahlas povedat - argument preco takto je ze neda sa robit karantena navzdy (neda?), a lepsie je zmenezovat aby spolocnost ziskala imunitu a regulovat mnozstvo ludi ktori su chori naraz, napriklad deti mozu byt chore lebo tam je nizka umrtnost

tri klucove otazky za mna:
- kolko rokov bude trvat pri kapacite nemocnic kym systemom prejdu vsetci ludia? cina ma len 80k pripadov a bola kapacitne v pici hned, to je zanedbatelne percento ich populacie
- ak je priznaky vidiet az po tyzdni a karantena ma vplyv na cisla az po tyzdni, ako chcu regulovat polo-karantenu? toto sa v principe da, ale je to tikajuca bomba :)
- je vobec mozne aby nejaky politik takto hazardoval so zdravim populacie pre ekonomicke ucely? zaujimave to vsak bude aj tam kde su karanteny, ak to nezmizne do par mesiacov, tak vela firiem a ludi skrachuje

imho:
- UK zavrie do tyzdna vsetko kvoli panike ktora nastane pri exponencialnom raste bez karanteny a s predikciami ze tyzden exponencialneho rastu..
- zaroven regulacia karanteny bude musiet byt, ale opacnym sposobom, ze postupne sa zacnu otvarat niektore skoly v takej miere aby to zvladol zdravotny system
- otazka je nakolko to sposobi krach ekonomiky, k tomuto zatial nevidim ziadne info ani z ciny ze z coho ti ludia ziju, kazdopadne polku rizika na seba prevezme stat aby nenastal kolaps, a druha polovica bude ocistujuci mechanizmus

btw, UK ide rapidne hore: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

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som zvedavy ako to chcu urobit, zoberu vsetkych starych a slabych do Bradavic, vybuduju okolo nich magicku hradbu pred koronovirom a vnutri ich budu ucitelia magie ucit "expecto patronum"?