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| node: | When will the coronavirus outbreak peak? |
| template: | 4 |
| parent: | Covid-19 / Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) |
| owner: | toxygen |
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| created: | 18.02.2020 - 21:21:09 |
| updated: | 18.02.2020 - 21:23:38 |
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https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00361-5
Optimistic scenario
Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine predict that the peak could occur anytime now. Sebastian Funk, a statistician who models infectious diseases and who coauthored the analysis, says the prediction is based on an estimate that one infected person in Wuhan was, on average, infecting between 1.5 and 4.5 others — a measure known as the virus’s effective reproduction number, or R — before the travel restrictions were introduced on 23 January. Funk estimates that at the peak around a million people, about 10% of Wuhan's population, will be infected.
Worst case
Nishiura says he has used a model that estimates that the outbreak will peak sometime between late March and late May. At this point, he says, up to 2.3 million cases will be diagnosed in a single day. In total, he estimates that between 550 million and 650 million people across China will be infected, roughly 40% of the country’s population. Nishiura says that about half of those people will show symptoms.
Optimistic scenario
Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine predict that the peak could occur anytime now. Sebastian Funk, a statistician who models infectious diseases and who coauthored the analysis, says the prediction is based on an estimate that one infected person in Wuhan was, on average, infecting between 1.5 and 4.5 others — a measure known as the virus’s effective reproduction number, or R — before the travel restrictions were introduced on 23 January. Funk estimates that at the peak around a million people, about 10% of Wuhan's population, will be infected.
Worst case
Nishiura says he has used a model that estimates that the outbreak will peak sometime between late March and late May. At this point, he says, up to 2.3 million cases will be diagnosed in a single day. In total, he estimates that between 550 million and 650 million people across China will be infected, roughly 40% of the country’s population. Nishiura says that about half of those people will show symptoms.