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| node: | 11.02.2020-14:33:45 |
| template: | 4 |
| parent: | Covid-19 / Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) |
| owner: | s7 |
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| created: | 11.02.2020 - 14:33:45 |
| updated: | 11.02.2020 - 14:56:00 |
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2 ❤️
It is unclear how many are currently infected. Not only because the numbers from China are inherently unreliable (lets not forget that China deliberately drove sick SARS patients around in ambulances to hide them from the World Health Organization back in 2003), but even if you trust China’s data it is clear they are hitting the limits of their testing capacity.
Case 1 — The Optimistic Scenario
In the optimistic scenario, a month from now we can calculate, from data outside mainland china, that the CFR is perhaps .3% or below. Moreover, the spread of the virus outside mainland china will stabilize and we will not see additional community spread in other countries. This would be a good indication that China’s containment measures worked at the R0 value has fallen to 1 or bellow.In this case China will probably make a quick economic recovery, and the virus will be on par with the H1N1 (Swine flu) pandemic of 2009.
Case 2 — Pandemic with Low CFR
In the case two scenario we will be able to calculate that the CFR of the virus is fairly low. Somewhere between .1 % and 1%.However, the virus is not contained to China and we see sustained community spread in multiple countries outside of China.This means that the virus would spread — but it would be about as bad as the flu or perhaps 10X as bad as the flu. At the low range of this the economy would make a fairly quick recovery and at the high range it could be a moderate drag on global growth.
Case 3 — Pandemic with Moderate CFR
In this scenario the virus in not contained within China — and the CFR is somewhere around 2%. Anecdotally this appears to be the current base case assumption among the experts.The closest historical analogy to this would be the 1918 influenza pandemic. This would almost certainly have a fairly large economic impact. Hospitals might be overwhelmed, people would be wearing masks on the street. Millions could die in the United States and other developed countries.
Case 4 — Worst Case Scenario. Pandemic with High CFR.
In the worst case scenario the virus is not contained in China, and it in ends up having a CFR or somewhere between 3%–7%. Maybe the fatality rate is slightly worse than we hope — and healthcare systems become overwhelmed causing the mortality rate to rise substantially. In that case, this is The Big One.
https://www.cassandracapital.net/post/coronavirus-the-status-of-the-outbreak-and-4-possible-scenarios
Case 1 — The Optimistic Scenario
In the optimistic scenario, a month from now we can calculate, from data outside mainland china, that the CFR is perhaps .3% or below. Moreover, the spread of the virus outside mainland china will stabilize and we will not see additional community spread in other countries. This would be a good indication that China’s containment measures worked at the R0 value has fallen to 1 or bellow.In this case China will probably make a quick economic recovery, and the virus will be on par with the H1N1 (Swine flu) pandemic of 2009.
Case 2 — Pandemic with Low CFR
In the case two scenario we will be able to calculate that the CFR of the virus is fairly low. Somewhere between .1 % and 1%.However, the virus is not contained to China and we see sustained community spread in multiple countries outside of China.This means that the virus would spread — but it would be about as bad as the flu or perhaps 10X as bad as the flu. At the low range of this the economy would make a fairly quick recovery and at the high range it could be a moderate drag on global growth.
Case 3 — Pandemic with Moderate CFR
In this scenario the virus in not contained within China — and the CFR is somewhere around 2%. Anecdotally this appears to be the current base case assumption among the experts.The closest historical analogy to this would be the 1918 influenza pandemic. This would almost certainly have a fairly large economic impact. Hospitals might be overwhelmed, people would be wearing masks on the street. Millions could die in the United States and other developed countries.
Case 4 — Worst Case Scenario. Pandemic with High CFR.
In the worst case scenario the virus is not contained in China, and it in ends up having a CFR or somewhere between 3%–7%. Maybe the fatality rate is slightly worse than we hope — and healthcare systems become overwhelmed causing the mortality rate to rise substantially. In that case, this is The Big One.
https://www.cassandracapital.net/post/coronavirus-the-status-of-the-outbreak-and-4-possible-scenarios