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No to prave nedava, pretoze ten paper nie je cost-benefit analyza. To je proste uplna ina tema. e: ochutnavka: III. WHY RUIN IS SERIOUS BUSINESS The risk of ruin is not sustainable. By the ruin theorems, if you incur a tiny probability of ruin as a "one-off" risk, survive it, then do it again (another "one-off" deal), you will eventually go bust with probability 1. ... For this reason a strategy of risk taking is not sustainable and we must consider any genuine risk of total ruin as if it were inevitable. The good news is that some classes of risk can be deemed to be practically of probability zero: the earth survived trillions of natural variations daily over 3 billion years, otherwise we would not be here. By recognizing that normal risks are not in the category of ruin problems, we recognize also that it is not necessary or even normal to take risks that involve a possibility of ruin. pripadne: Because the “cost” of ruin is effectively infinite, cost-benefit analysis (in which the potential harm and potential gain are multiplied by their probabilities and weighed against each other) is no longer a useful paradigm. Even if probabilities are expected to be zero but have a non-zero uncertainty, then a sensitivity analysis that considers the impact of that uncertainty results in infinities as well. The potential harm is so substantial that everything else in the equation ceases to matter. In this case, we must do everything we can to avoid the catastrophe. |
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