"Statisticians are borrowing models from seismology and physics to forecast future patterns of war and terrorism.

As they write in a 2012 paper: “Patterns observed in the frequency of severe terrorist events suggests that some aspects of this phenomenon, and possibly of other complex social phenomena, are not nearly as contingent or unpredictable as is often assumed.”

“The conflict studies community usually wants to look at the motives of terrorists or their tactics, not the bigger pattern ... it’s like asking a weather forecaster to worry about climate change.”"



http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/b70eb990-ad40-11e2-b27f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2ShtIS936