How Low Can the Stock Markets Go? Much Lower
Nouriel Roubini | Mar 9, 2009

For the last six months this author has been arguing that, in spite of the sharp fall in US and global equities there were significant downside risk to stock markets. Thus, repeated bear market rallies would fizzle out under the onslaught of worse than expected macro news, earnings news and financial markets/firms shocks. They way we put is very simple:

If you take a macro approach earnings per share (EPS) of S&P 500 firms will be – quite realistically in 2009 - in the $ 50 to 60 range (I say realistically as some may even argue that in a severe recession they could fall to $40). Then, the question is what the multiple, i.e. the price earnings (P/E) ratio will be on such earnings. It is realistic to expect that the multiple may fall in the 10 to 12 range in a U-shaped recession. Then, even in the best scenario (earnings at 60 and P/E at 12) the S&P index would be at 720. If either earnings are closer to 50 or the P/E ratio is lower at 10 then the S&P could fall to 600 (12 x 50 or 10 x 60) or even to 500 (10 x 50). Equivalently the Dow (DJIA) would be at least as low as 7000 and possibly as low as 6000 or 5000. And using a similar logic we argued that global equities – following the US - had another 20% plus downside risk.

These predictions were made when the S&P 500 was close to 900 and the DIJA was close at 9000. This basic macro approach was the reason why we argued that the latest bear market sucker’s rally – the one going from late November 2008 to early January 2009 – would fizzle out and new lows would be reached. Indeed, like previous bear market rallies of the last year this one went bust – falling over 20% - and the DJIA and the S&P broke below the 7000 and 700 upper limit of our range for US equities. With the DJIA and the S&P now well below the “7” range the next test for the markets may be 6000 and 600 for the two indices.

viac